台橡涂偉華：行業週期循環加速 進入合理利潤時代

http://news.cnyes.com/content/20130617/KH8HW88ED2LYN.shtml 台橡涂偉華：行業週期循環加速 進入合理利潤時代 鉅亨網記者尹慧中 台北　　2013-06-17 18:40:15　 Ads by Google Home Solar Programsunrun.com Go Solar For $0 Down With Sunrun.Free Install Upkeep & Maintenance. 台橡總經理涂偉華。(鉅亨網記者尹慧中攝) 台橡總經理涂偉華。(鉅亨網記者尹慧中攝) 權值股台橡(2103-TW)將於明(18)日召開股東會。台橡總經理涂偉華接受媒體訪問時表示，行業循環週期加速近半，在進入合理利潤時代，除既有產品扮演著現金流的創造角色，更將強化開發SSBR等高值化新產品衝刺獲利。 台橡在前年產業循環高峰與因應丁二烯等每噸報價高達4000至5000美元而使每股獲利達8.03元並配發股利4.5元；而隨量化寬鬆(QE)雜音與合成橡膠新進者一窩蜂投入使去年每股獲利降至3.27元但董事會仍提擬每股配2.6元，換算配發率拉高近8成。 涂偉華接受媒體訪問時回應表示，在丁二烯每噸報價高達4000美元以上的水準實際是對下游產生了傷害，也需要一段時間恢復元氣，另在PP.ABS.EBD的尋找互相替代與新進者一窩蜂投入的產能快速開出，過往高價與超額利潤時代是已過去。 但他也指出，觀察行業週期，如過去7年一個循環，到迄今的4—5年的週期，顯示行業週期循環逐步加速，換算是2015—2016年約再反轉。 他說，面對新進者產能陸續開出的殺價競爭，該公司40多年品牌與品質仍具有國際客戶選擇的優勢，且除既有產品扮演現金流的創造角色，更將強化開發。SSBR等高值化與利基型新品進而衝刺獲利。 台橡近五年主力產品SBR、BRR應用於下游輪胎產業，在大客戶普利司通(5108-JP)、米其林(Etablissements Michelin)(ML-FR)因應市況需求推升也使70%營收相關於汽車業，並受國際原油價格、報價波動波動影響，公司已設定未來特用、非特用產品占營收比重各半的目標以降低風險。 台橡去年全年合併營收為新台幣453.64億元，較100年度減少18%；營業毛利新台幣60.30億元，營業淨利新台幣38.36億元，較100年度各減少51%及62%。結算稅後淨利為新台幣25.74億元，較前一年度減少55%，較預算減少40%；稅後純益率為7.01%，每股稅後盈餘為3.27元。

99% of Long-Term Investing Is Doing Nothing; the Other 1% Will Change Your Life

By Morgan Housel | More Articles 
December 20, 2013 | Comments (27)

Napoleon's definition of a military genius was, "The man who can do the average thing when all those around him are going crazy." It's the same in investing.

Building wealth over a lifetime doesn't require a lifetime of superior skill. It requires pretty mediocre skills -- basic arithmetic and a grasp of investing fundamentals -- practiced consistently throughout your entire lifetime, especially during times of mania and panic. 

Most financial advice is about today -- what should I do now, what stocks look good now. But the vast majority of the time, I've come to realize, today isn't that important. It's just buying and waiting. Most of what matters as a long-term investor is how you behave during the 1% of the time everyone else is losing their cool.

To demonstrate my meaning, I used Yale economist Robert Shiller's market data going back to 1900 and created three hypothetical investors. Each has saved $1 a month, every month, since 1900.

The first is Betty. She doesn't know anything about investing, so she dollar-cost averages, investing $1 in the S&P 500 every month, rain or shine.

Sue, a CNBC addict, invests $1 a month into the S&P, but tries to protect her wealth by saving cash when the economy is in recession, deploying her built-up hoard back into the market only after the economy officially exits a recession.

Bill, a mutual fund manager whose only incentive is to look right in the short run, invests $1 a month, but stops investing in stocks six months after a recession begins, and only puts his money back into the market six months after a recession ends.

After 113 years of investing, who's won? Boring Betty takes it by a mile:

What fascinates me about these numbers is that of the 1,353 months since 1900, only 321 of them have been altered for Sue and Bill, because that's the number of months the economy has been in recession. If you dig further into the numbers, you'll see that a much smaller percentage of months make up the bulk of the difference in returns. Ten percent of months explains two-thirds of the difference between dollar-cost averaging and sitting out during recessions. Five percent explains more than half. According to analyst Eddy Elfenbein, over the last 20 years, the 24 best days accounted for the entire gain in the S&P 500. "The other 99.5% of the time has been a net loss."

Every one of the market's top days took place during periods of sheer terror. Of the 20 best market days of all time, 17 were during the Great Depression, one was a few days after the crash of 1987, and two were during the depths of the 2008 financial crisis. Missing these days devastated your long-term returns. And most investors who missed them were those who sold out, or stopped buying, after stocks crashed and everyone around them were busy panicking. Those who try to avoid losses consistently end up missing even larger gains. That's why Boring Betty, who is average all of the time, ends up above average overall.

A pilot once described his job as "hours and hours of boredom punctuated by moments of sheer terror." I think of investing the same way. Your success as an investor will be determined by how you respond to punctuated moments of terror, not the years and years spent on cruise control.

Check back every Tuesday and Friday for Morgan Housel's columns on finance and economics. 

 

Contact Morgan Housel at mhousel@fool.com The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

富邦媒體科技董事長林福星 投資術有三箭 2013/09/18

富邦媒體科技董事長林福星 投資術有三箭

【記者柯玥寧／台北報導】 2013/09/18

富邦媒體科技董事長林福星，身兼富邦金控創業投資副董事長、富邦人壽副董事長，為富邦集團的重要幹部。化工博士出身的他，幫富邦集團成功操盤眾多投資案。在金融投資屢有斬獲的秘訣，林福星透露，「投資不需要高學歷，需要的是理念、投入和情緒管理」。林福星說，人類的進化由不確定性高的狩獵時代進入收益穩定性較佳的畜牧時代，代表投資也不適合短進短出、經常追逐不確定性高的價差，應該重視長期穩定收益型的投資，例如：債券和穩定性高的配息型股票。當然也可以有一小部分資金看準趨勢，做成長型產業的長期投資。 林福星所帶領的富邦投資團隊的股票投資原則，「精選股票、長期持有」，持有時間至少二至三年，甚至十年不賣，專挑有高現金殖利率股票，不投資具有季節性變化的股票。 林福星認為投資是很專門的工作，要有好的團隊才能做得好，富邦因團隊整齊，這幾年來的表現才能突出。 此外，投資是看未來而不是眼前，以前國內投資者不看好生技產業時，林福星認為生技產業潛力十足，九年來持續投入生技產業，如智擎、台灣浩鼎、國光生技、杏國等都有不錯的回報。 他指出，一般人認為國內生技業要開發出新藥，因為流程太久、資本不夠，沒有機會。 但其實新藥公司開發到臨床一期就很值錢，很多業者在第一期就能夠賣權利金而獲利。 【2013/09/18 經濟日報】@ http://udn.com/

comment: Not only in USA, stock market in Taiwan showed similar pattern before recent sell-off in mid October. Smaller stock portfolio like OTC50 and had declined already.


SOURCE: http://stock.huagu.com/hqgz/mzgs/1410/1012196.html

美小盘股与2007年何其相似！

2014年10月09日 15:42:01 来源：互联网

字号：T|T

　　股市崩盘总能够轻易地上头条。然而，现实是崩盘更多地是一个过程而非单一的事件。扭转一个强劲的升势需要时间，因为稍微有回调便会有许多买盘涌入。这就是为什么在市场开始暴跌之前，总是会出现高位的来回震荡。

　　投顾公司Pension Partners的研究部主管Charlie Bilello指出，代表小盘股的Russell 2000 指数今年就呈现出了这种高位震荡的趋势。

　　是否觉得似曾相识？

　　2000。。。

　　2007。。。

　　2011年前7个月。。。

　　不过，这一次也有所不同。

　　说它不同是因为美联储连续6年实施接近于零的利率和三轮的量化宽松(QE)，废除了经济周期的影响和避免了股市出现深幅调整。这一点可以从股价变化和有史以来最长的上升趋势中得到证明。标普500指数连续471个交易日运行于200日移动均线上方，股市这样一路上涨几乎不回调的情况是前所未见的。

　　(标普500指数运行于200日均线上方的天数)

　　也许美联储的追随者们是对的，上升趋势会一直延续。然而，更可能的情况是，美股牛市将在某时某刻终结。小盘股、高收益率债券和周期性行业股的持续疲弱正让大盘股变得难以独善其身。

　　近期，中小盘股、新兴市场股、欧股纷纷下试200日均线，唯独美国大盘股尚未试探。不过，Bilello认为，这只是意味着大盘股是最后一个试探者而已。为了躲避10月美联储退出QE带来的风险，投资者纷纷转投大盘股以作防御。

　　他表示，转眼之间市场已迎来了10月，投资们很快将意识到美国大盘股并非无风险资产，尽管在过去六年中，美联储几乎做到了。

　　如下图所示，Bilello称，Russell 2000 指数在未来数月可能会变得极为重要。因为它所展示出的来回震荡不禁让人想起2007年。

(如果跌破5月低点将形成双重顶：自顶部起的下跌幅度将超20%)

　　很多多头们将这样的震荡称为再次拉升之前的一次“漂亮的整固”。也许他们是对的，但是Bilello表示，万一他们错了，后果将不堪设想。因为今年2月和5月构筑的底部支撑已经跌破，如果继续下行跌幅将会很深。

　　跌破还是撑住？他掘取了英国摇滚乐队齐柏林飞船(Led Zeppelin)一句耐人寻味的歌词作为答案：

　　如果雨一直下，决堤只在时日。